El Niño 2026/27 is shaping up to be one of the strongest events in recent years, and Toko Mouth is already showing the early signs.
The combination of drying winds, reduced rainfall, and occasional heavy rain bands from the west means our coastal community will face a mix of fire danger, wind impacts, and short‑burst storm activity.
Across New Zealand, El Niño is expected to split the country into two distinct patterns:
Drier, hotter conditions in the north and east, increasing drought and rural fire risk.
Wetter, storm‑exposed conditions in the west and lower South Island, with a higher chance of cyclone remnants tracking further south.
For Toko Mouth and the Tokomairiro catchment, this means:
High fire risk as vegetation dries and westerlies strengthen.
Moderate storm and rainfall risk, especially when west‑driven systems push across Otago.
High wind risk, with gusty days, coastal erosion pressure, and the usual spring instability.
More information here
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